APG5105 Foreign Policy of Emerging Powers

Question 1

Stephen M. Walt had written a foreign policy which is known as the “Big Five Question”, where he has primarily tried to discuss about the US grand strategy within the continuously changing global landscape. The five Big Questions that are highlighted by him discusses about the contemporary world politics. The five big questions discussed by Stephen M. Walt in his article are discussed below-

Where is the EU project Headed? It cannot be denied that the construction pertaining to the European Union is considered to be a significant innovation in the global politics, however, new doubts have emerged regarding its long-term future (Walt, 2010). Notre Dame’s university professor, Sebastian Rosato who is a pessimist believes that the mark of the European unity had already been passed, whereas, Andrew Moravcsik who is an optimist from Princeton University, stated that the present European difficulties are going to likely promote future steps of integration (Walt, 2010). Hence, an answer here become quite essential as the emergence of power politics in Europe would compel the US to devote their time as well as attention towards a continent that is “primed for peace” and is of no strategic concern.

If China’s power continues to rise, how easy will it be to get the Asian states to balance against it? The question clearly brings to light that power balance theory which has predicted that states that are weaker will make an effort to contain the influence of emerging powers by coming up with defensive alliances targeted against them (Walt, 2010). It cannot be denied that the rising power of China is already quite alarming for most of its neighbors who firstly look towards the US and one another for help and assistance (Walt, 2010). However, the question is the strength of the balance. It can be assumed that if China really gets powerful and on the other hand, the US disengages itself completely, then the neighbors of China would be tempted to campaign with Beijing that will lead to the emergence of Chinese influence in Asia (Walt, 2010). But if the neighbors get each other’s support along with the US then they will try to balance. However, here too the question arises as to how much support will the US have to provide to the Asian states (Walt, 2010).

What’s the relationship between the US defense spending, the deficit, and America’s economic health as well as well-being? After the recession of 2008, many believe that the US is spending a lot of money on their national security along with the rising budget deficit, retirement of baby boomers, fiscal issues that will be faced by the states and the government along with the need to improve US infrastructure and education (Walt, 2010). Relationship between economic wellbeing as well as defense spending is not clear. Defense spending within a short period of time will soon lead to many people out of work and make the situation of recession worse and will not prove to be of any help to the budget deficit is the money is utilized for entitlement programs (Walt, 2010).

If the US disengages from key areas of the Muslim world – Iraq and Afghanistan- would the threat of anti-American terrorism rise or fall? To defeat the Al-Qaeda there is continuous fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan and military presence within these places is the primary issue of terrorism problem in the US and as stated by Robert Pape from Chicago University that anti-American terrorism will decline if the US end their military campaigns in these countries (Walt, 2010). However, other group states that US withdrawal from these areas will encourage Al-Qaeda to do their activities without fear. Stephen M. Walt supports the former view and considers the issue to be of primary concern as it is central to the conduct as well as design of the US grand strategy and therefore requires closer scrutiny (Walt, 2010).

Is the era of the US primacy over? How will the end of post-Cold War primacy have an impact on its grand strategy and foreign policy? It cannot be denied that the US for some time will remain the most powerful country across the globe and by 2030, its economy will sore heights and per capita income of the country too will be more than its rivals. Its population too will grow unlike Russia, Europe and Japan. However, the primacy which the US enjoyed soon after the decline of the Soviet Union had eroded because China is gradually growing and will soon translate its wealth into military capability that will challenge the US position in the East Asia (Walt, 2010). Similarly, Brazil and Turkey too are advancing and are gaining high influence in their surroundings. Hence, to succeed the US grand strategy along with diplomacy needs to be attentive, flexible as well as nuanced (Walt, 2010).

Hence, from the above bog five questions, one question which according to me is of most significant concern and is the biggest is the last question. The United States need to understand that to make its grand strategy and diplomacy work they will have to cut deals where they used to dictate and become more considerate towards the interest of other states which is ignored currently and might have an impact on its foreign policy (Walt, 2010). It should be noted that flexibility is not promoted by the US because they see things as either black or white, good or evil and fail to see thing in between these aspects. They like to dictate other countries and are over confident that they can solve any and every problem (Walt, 2010). Additionally, the country also never acknowledges its mistake and are not restrained in their approaches.

These aspects needs to be given importance by the US officials and they have to become more nuanced and flexible in their approach if they want to lead before other countries as a failure to do so will lead to disappointment as well as dissatisfaction among other nation states and they will start preferring other emerging countries who are more flexible and considerate in their approach which will have a deep and negative impact on the US grand strategy (Walt, 2010). For instance, the US stubbornness to continue their military campaigns in Muslim states is affecting their strategy as a reverse of this action would lead to friendly relations among the countries.

Question 2

It cannot be denied that the relations of the Unites States with China have always been of mixed nature which involves a complex combination of both cooperation as well as contention. Hence, it can be said that peaceful cooperative relationship cannot exist between China and the US. Both China and the United States are quite different in their approach towards national interests however, a closer look at their national interests will clearly state that they are similar in their ideas where both the states desire national security as their primary concern and both want to build effective relationship with other countries for their survival (Bader, 2018). China’s primary national concern or interest comprises of state sovereignty, they give importance to national security, promote territorial integrity as one of their national interests, believes in national reunification and also try to adhere to basic safeguards that will lead to ensured sustainable social as well as economic development (Medeiros, 2019). China is currently facing dispute with Japan and Philippines regarding East and South China seas and wants to claim these islands along with a maritime territory which involves their national interest of state sovereignty, territorial integrity as well as national security (Medeiros, 2019).

On the other hand, the national interest of the United States is quite different from China and some of the most significant national interest which is greatly given importance by the US government and its officials is to primarily prevent the threat of an attack through weapons of mass destruction on the soil of the United States or its military abroad (Whineray, 2020). Second national interest of the US is to ensure that they have good as well as friendly relations and cooperation with their allies that will help in shaping an international system where the country can survive effectively (Whineray, 2020). Third national interest of the country is to prevent the emergence of any type pf hostile power around the US borders which might create tensions and also affect its economy. Another national interest is also to ensure the viability regarding the major global systems and lastly, to build productive relationship with other countries that has the potential of becoming its adversaries (Maher, 2018). 

At the same time, it should also be noted that though the current relationship between China and the US is that of contention in reality but cooperation on the surface, the domestic determinants of their foreign policy are almost similar in approach (Maher, 2018). Firstly, China’s domestic policy is to maintain peaceful regional and global environment that will lead to successful implementation of its domestic economic reform along with defense modernization, where this domestic policy is clearly aligned with its foreign policy of national security (Maher, 2018).

In other words, China wants stability in their relationship with other countries so that they can concentrate on their domestic economic reform by lowering the threat of armed conflict and maintaining good relations with the US which supports their foreign policy that will help the country to succeed in its economic reform, avoid external pressure on the military modernization program of the country and resolve the issue of acquisition of nuclear weapons from Japan and Korea (Shih et al., 2019). Similarly, US domestic policy too promotes social security for which they will have to maintain good and friendly relations with their neighbors that will help them to promote security within their nation which in turn will encourage them to make relevant and strong economic and other reforms that will help in securing people socially within the country which will thereby help in protecting the US, its citizens and its allies (George, 2019).

China’s another domestic policy is its reliance on the modules of realpolitik, balance of power politics and an avoidance of entangling alliances that has helped the country to promote its foreign relations with its rivals like the US, Japan and Russia (Tan, 2018). US promotes welfare of its citizens as a domestic policy which is again clearly aligned with its foreign policy of continuing access to international resources as well as markets which will again require peaceful relationship between US and its rivals so that relevant products and resources can be accomplished by its neighbors that will lead to the welfare of its people (De Graaff & Apeldoorn 2018).

Hence, the liberal perspective effectively describes the relationship between the US and China. The liberals have argued that making sense of the US-China relationship as well as their development with respect to the world order will require a deeper understanding along with analysis of the two countries domestic and political economies where each one is deeply linked with the global capitalist economy (Stokes, 2018). In case of the US, its liberal capitalist political economy is characterized by a structure which is at the apex of the autonomous capitalist class while the Chinese primacy does not rest with the autonomous capitalist class but with the state which is organized by the Communist Party and this is considered to be a significant bone of contention which is the major cause of unhealthy relationship between the US and China (Stokes, 2018. Though both the US and China adhere by the liberal principles of prioritizing the welfare of their state and people through positive economic and friendly relations however, the approach adopted by the two countries are poles apart from each other which had led to widespread conflict between them (De Graaff & Apeldoorn 2018).

References

Bader, J. (2018). US-China relations: Is it time to end the engagement. Brookings Institution Policy Brief. URL: https://www. brookings. edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/FP_20180925_us_china_relations. pdf (accessed: 07.09. 2018).

De Graaff, N., & Van Apeldoorn, B. (2018). US–China relations and the liberal world order: contending elites, colliding visions?. International affairs, 94(1), 113-131.

George, A. L. (2019). Domestic constraints on regime change in US foreign policy: The need for policy legitimacy. In Change in the international system (pp. 233-262). Routledge.

Maher, R. (2018). Bipolarity and the Future of US‐China Relations. Political Science Quarterly, 133(3), 497-525.

Medeiros, E. S. (2019). The changing fundamentals of US-China relations. The Washington Quarterly, 42(3), 93-119.

Shih, C. Y., Huang, C. C., Yeophantong, P., Bunskoek, R., Ikeda, J., Hwang, Y. J., ... & Chen, C. C. (2019). China and international theory: the balance of relationships. Routledge.

Stokes, D. (2018). Trump, American hegemony and the future of the liberal international order. International Affairs, 94(1), 133-150.

Tan, S. S. (2018). When giants vie: China–US competition, institutional balancing, and East Asian multilateralism. In US-China Competition and the South China Sea Disputes (pp. 116-133). Routledge.

Walt, S. M. (2010, July 12). Five big questions. https://foreignpolicy.com/2010/07/12/five-big-questions

Whineray, D. (2020). The United States' Current and Future Relationship with the United Nations.

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